What's next for the oil price as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz drag into autumn? This week, we break down the latest developments in Gulf shipping and what could move crude through September.
Volatility and activity in oil and many other instruments experienced the expected seasonal decline around mid-August, but what’s next for the commodity when markets’ holiday mode ends? This week I spoke with Clay Webster from FX Street about recent developments in the Gulf and how upcoming news could affect major markets, most notably crude oil. In this article, I’ll be summarising some of the key points influencing oil recently, but for the full details, watch or listen to the podcast.
Key takeaways
- Hormuz talks remain stalled. Oman and Iran are negotiating, but no deal has been reached, and shipping through the strait is still a fraction of pre-conflict levels.
- Attacks keep disrupting the Gulf. The 13 August strike on two Emirati tankers shows the risk to shipping hasn't eased much since the conflict's early months.
- US crude stocks are shifting. After steady declines in May and June, inventories stabilised in July before EIA data showed a sharp build in early August.
- American producers are ramping up output. Active oil rigs are up more than 10% from April's low, as US firms respond to higher prices.
- Oil price technicals point to a crossroads. Crude oil’s Fibonacci levels have held so far, with price now caught in a narrow channel between the 38.2% and 50% retracements.
Strait of Hormuz talks stall as some tankers still move
Earlier in August 2026, traders were generally positive about news that Oman and Iran were actively discussing reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of normal-ish oil flows from the Gulf. No agreement has been reached yet, so I think any news in this area is likely to be key for oil in the next few weeks.
Although many tankers and other ships can't move through Hormuz due to the risk of attack and insurance restrictions, the USA claims it’s increasing capacity to escort vessels. There are also reports of various ships turning off transponders to make the journey through successfully. Average daily transits in early August were about 15 ships, around 10% of the January-February average before the start of the conflict.
According to most major news outlets, the latest significant attack on shipping in the Gulf was on 13 August, when Iran hit two Emirati tankers. Overall, the situation is extremely precarious but slightly better compared to the early stages of hostilities in March and April. I’m watching news of attacks and reports from the negotiations.
US crude oil stocks swing from decline to a sharp August build
After fairly large overall declines in American oil stocks in May and June, the situation stabilised somewhat last month. The first stock data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in August showed a large rise.
Meanwhile, there’s mounting evidence that American producers are pumping more oil to exploit higher prices. According to data from Baker Hughes, there were 454 active oil rigs as of 7 August, up slightly more than 10% from early April’s low. The impact of disruptions around Hormuz isn’t between the USA and other major consumers: Chinese supplies seem to be more-or-less secure for the time being, and the USA remains the largest oil producer. However, other countries such as Japan continue to face supply issues.
Crude oil Fibonacci levels point to a key crossroads
For now, I think sideways movement might be likely to continue. August is usually a slow month in the markets, with little volume to consistently drive prices either way. 2026 doesn’t seem to be an exception to that yet, with volume remaining relatively low this month and average true range (ATR) showing a significant drop in volatility since late March.
In light of this, I’m concentrating on the monthly Fibonacci retracements. I’ve drawn these on the monthly oil chart based on the retreat from summer 2022’s highs above 110 USD to December 2025’s low around 55 USD. Failed tests at 23.6% and 61.8% in July might mean these are established as support and resistance, respectively, but now I’m also looking in the short term at a possible channel between 38.2% and 50%.
Final thoughts
Over the last few months, I’ve honestly found it difficult and stressful (more than usual) to trade oil with primary reference to technicals. Market participants have continued to take the American government’s flip-flopping between negotiations and attacks seriously. Depending on the situation in the Gulf around the beginning of September, I think the price could go either way to the end of the year. For more on the how and why, check out this week’s Trading Talks with Clay and I using the link above.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not trading or investment advice. It reflects the author's personal opinion, not that of Exness. Please do your own research before trading.
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