Bitcoin price prediction: Treasury buybacks lift crypto
Is this crypto rally built to last, or just a temporary reprieve? Treasury buybacks gave markets a lift, but with a Fed rate hike back on the table, here's today's crypto market news and what it means for the latest bitcoin price prediction.
Crypto markets landed a bid this week, but not from the usual sources. Following the announcement of a US Treasury buyback increase, risk-on sentiment returned across financial markets, including crypto, even as underlying catalysts remain scarce—continuing the shifting conditions we tracked in our Bitcoin NFP report and market update. This roundup of crypto market news today looks at what's actually driving prices—from Treasury policy and ETF flows to on-chain behavior—and what it means for bitcoin price prediction heading into the Fed's next rate decision.
Trade crypto market moves
Try the most popular crypto CFDs with better-than-market trading conditions.
Key takeaways
- Treasury buybacks revived risk appetite. Scott Bessent's buyback increase supported broader financial markets and pulled mainstream investors back into crypto ETFs.
- Digital asset companies remain a mixed force. Strategy and Strive's bitcoin purchases supported prices, while Metaplanet's shift to Coinbase adds a fresh supply risk.
- ETF inflows hit multi-month highs. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in 3,539.1 million USD, the strongest monthly inflow in 13 months, while ether ETFs saw 1,836.6 million USD, a 12-month high.
- Long-term holders are taking profits. LTHs reduced holdings by over 67,000 BTC even as prices appreciated, realizing gains along the way.
- A Fed rate hike remains the key headwind. Markets still expect at least one more rate increase by year-end, which could keep risk assets, including crypto, under pressure.
US Treasury buybacks: A key driver
Following US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of an increased Treasury buyback, risk-on sentiment was revived, supporting broader financial markets, including crypto. At the same time, mainstream investors returned to crypto ETFs.
Summary:
The Treasury's buyback move—not a crypto-specific catalyst—has been driving this week's risk-on tone, drawing mainstream capital back into crypto ETFs even without a clear crypto-native trigger.
DATCos: Support or pressure?
Digital asset companies (DATCos) remain the key cohort absorbing supply in the markets. Recent bitcoin purchases by Strategy and Strive supported prices, while Metaplanet’s move to Coinbase poses a price risk.
Meanwhile, Bitmine’s recent ether purchases of 53.5k ETH gave the firm control over about 4.9% of ether supply. On the other side of the globe, Japan’s Remixpoint cleared its altcoin holdings, including its ether positions, keeping its bitcoin holdings.
Summary:
DATCos are cutting both ways right now—continued accumulation from firms like Strategy and Bitmine offers support, while Metaplanet's exchange transfer and Remixpoint's altcoin exit signal some rotation and caution among corporate holders.
ETF flows show strong demand
Investors added 3,539.1 million USD into bitcoin ETFs, the highest monthly inflows in the last 13 months. At the same time, investors also invested 1,836.6 million USD into ether ETFs, the highest monthly inflows in the last 12 months.
The debasement trade drove inflows into these products—a dynamic we broke down in gold's own debasement-trade rally—while the belief in an altcoin bull run also increased inflows into ether ETFs, as ethereum still reigns over the DeFi ecosystem.
Summary:
Both bitcoin and ether ETFs just posted their strongest inflows in over a year, driven by debasement-trade positioning and renewed optimism around an altcoin bull run led by ethereum's DeFi dominance.
Long-term holders (LTHs) distribute during appreciation
Excluding the LTH holding changes post-Coldcard breach, LTHs have reduced their holdings by over 67,000 BTC despite the recent additions. Suggesting they capitalized on the recent appreciation by taking profit from their holdings. This is not a random assumption, as data show realized LTH profits increased last month.
During the same period of price appreciation, LTHs recovered to elevated seven-day average realized profits from the seven-day average realized losses. These numbers aren’t random; they prove LTHs are capitalizing on the momentum. Ether saw the same pattern: significant profit realization during the upswings.
Summary:
Long-term holders are clearly cashing in on the rally rather than accumulating further, a pattern confirmed by rising realized profits across both bitcoin and ether—a dynamic worth watching for anyone tracking crypto market news today.
Final thoughts
In my opinion, crypto markets don’tstand alone these days, unlike in the past. Multiple factors determine future movements, from macroeconomics to onchain conditions.
While the US still demonstrates a strong jobs market with elevated inflation, markets still expect the Fed to raise the policy rate by at least one step by the end of 2026—a shift we also examined in how the Fed rate decision is reshaping gold. This condition creates headwinds for risk assets, including crypto, and complicates any near-term bitcoin price prediction. This condition creates headwinds for risk assets, including crypto.
At the same time, the lack of underlying catalysts may keep prices subdued, as there are no strong reasons for the markets to accumulate aggressively. Hence, the markets will remain subdued, if not weaken, in the near future.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Share:
Related
Exness Trade app
Trade with confidence anytime, anywhere.
Get the app
App title
Trading is risky. T&Cs apply.
